In 1965, Dry. Gordon Moore working as the Director of R&D for Fairchild Semiconductor published a paper titled “Cramming more components onto Integrated circuits”. In his paper, he discusses the future of electronics and how these “integrated circuits will lead to such wonders as home computers?or at least terminals connected to a central computer?automatic controls for automobiles, and personal portable communications equipment”. He also discusses how the rate In which the number of transistors that could be put onto an Integrated circuit will
Increase. His observations were based on observed data between 1959 and 1964. The rate was doubling every one to two years. He extrapolated these findings and stated that this trend would continue along the same line, or even quicker, for at least ten years. He went on to co-found Intel In 1968. Around 1970 his observation became referred to as Moor’s Law, and this pace of Improvement continued on for many years. Although It Is not a Natural Law, It has stood the test of time. This trend has continued and along with decrease in production costs, technology and innovation have exploded.
How long could this remarkable pace continue? The economic and social impact of this phenomenon has been nothing short of amazing. A computer manufactured in 2010 would be roughly half the price in 2011, and probably obsolete by 2012. The declining cost has allowed more and more people in the world to have access to computers and computing devices. Moor’s Law was also a driver for innovation as firms and technologists were always striving to fulfill Moor’s Law year after year. This led to the tech boom in the sass’s and all sorts of new innovative companies.
Some managed to survive the bubble bursting, ND some weren’t so lucky. Firms that managed to survive the bubble bursting gained wealth, and new types of entrepreneurs, along with consumers, came out of this evolving industry. In today’s world, it’s all about the mobile device and everyone being connected. Moor’s Law has allowed for this. Everything is using this type of technology today, from appliances, to security systems, to automobiles, and on and on. The world is a completely different place, technologically, today than it was when I was growing up in the ass’s and ass’s.
It’s hard to imagine how we survived back hen! That being said, we may be seeing the end of Moor’s Law nearly 50 years after Its Inception. While shoemakers will be seemingly be able to shrink the size of transistors In half, they cost of doing this will either stay the same, or become more expensive. This Is a drastic turnaround from 1970 – 2010. This could possibly stagnate the technology and network economy that has been bustling during this time. One new “law’ I learned about while researching this topic, was Moor’s Second Law.
This law states that as computers become faster and more efficient, the cost for producers to fulfill Moor’s Law becomes Increasingly difficult and expensive. This is exactly what the industry is struggling with today. Gordon Moore himself you push them out and eventually disaster happens. ” I don’t think we are headed for disaster, but the industry will need to harness new technologies if they wish to try and keep the trend going for much longer. There are opportunities out there for innovative firms to develop the latest technology, whether it is artificial intelligence, or something else that seemed impossible 10 years ago.
One indicator of the slow down, as mentioned by Lintel Gwenn, could be when the costs of increasing technology starts putting a divide between the technology makers whose customers are willing to pay a premium and the makers whose main niche is their low cost. They will not be able to pass the extra cost onto the consumer, whereas more premium, desirable brands will. Eventually their products could become obsolete. It may actually be easier for firms and managers to plan out long-term IS goals and strategies if Moor’s Law does come to an end. However, in recent years, while
Moor’s Law has been in full effect, it is a difficult task to plan long term. The best thing you can do is to continuously reevaluate your plan year after year, or be agile enough to make changes if any technological breakthroughs occur that can be taken advantage of, or are considered a threat to your organization. The key is having a plan, and being able to adjust to external, or internal, changes before they can damage the business. If Moor’s Law does finally end, organizations might have more of an idea of what the landscape is going to look like long term.
However, I redirect that even if it does come to an end, the way we use the current technology will continue to change and evolve into new ways in which we didn’t think possible. Successful companies must be able to adapt to whatever comes their way, or risk being put out of business. “Cramming more components onto integrated circuits”